Why do birth rates decline

The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers. Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century. And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.

The fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - is falling. If the number falls below approximately 2. In , women were having an average of 4. Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.

As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9. It has nothing to do with sperm counts or the usual things that come to mind when discussing fertility. Instead it is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children. In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story. Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of million in to less than 53 million by the end of the century.

Italy is expected to see an equally dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe. They are two of 23 countries - which also include Spain, Portugal, Thailand and South Korea - expected to see their population more than halve.

China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1. India will take its place. The UK is predicted to peak at 75 million in , and fall to 71 million by However, this will be a truly global issue, with out of countries having a fertility rate below the replacement level.

You might think this is great for the environment. But substantial fertility delay may also reveal how hard it is to live in this country, especially with children.

The message that you shouldn't have children unless your life is in order includes the clear implication that you're on your own once you do have kids. So when people's lives are difficult, as economic inequality is rising and when many have very limited opportunities for advancement , it's not surprising that people are delaying having kids.

Meanwhile, a spate of news stories and research studies has outlined how awful it is to be a mother in America — pandemic or no pandemic. When getting ahead or even treading water is very hard, when any small catastrophe could block your way to the middle class, doesn't it make sense to try to establish your life and your career before you introduce the joyful chaos of children into your life?

It isn't surprising that the women entering their middle to late reproductive years right now — my generation — are the first to really internalize this message that we can delay fertility to achieve our dreams. Our mothers were among the first for whom modern contraception was broadly legal and accessible.

They used contraception and benefited from it, but they did not spend their lives hearing that planning their fertility was their responsibility. We have. Our country has successfully convinced us that it's our job to wait to have kids until we can buffer themselves and our children from the battering ram that is American indifference to the challenges of parenting.

And we have listened. That we can choose when we want to have kids should be cause for celebration, not hand-wringing. The conditions under which we make these choices — that's worth getting upset about. She studies the impacts of and social responses to family planning policy in the United States. IE 11 is not supported.

For an optimal experience visit our site on another browser. Share this —. For some countries, this trend is incredibly worrying. In South Korea, where the fertility rate is less than one child per woman, the government has begun incentivizing pregnancies ; China, standing on the edge of a previously unimaginable population cliff, dropped its one-child policy and started allowing families to have two kids in This past May, it further increased the cap to three children.

Countries that are worried about falling birth rates are usually focused on economics and demographics, explains Caroline Hartnett, a demographer and sociologist at the University of South Carolina. On the flipside, Hartnett says, people who cheer low fertility rates as a good thing are similarly misguided; babies, she points out, are not bad for the environment, and treating them as such stigmatizes childbearing. Interestingly, both the historical rise in populations and the fall in birth rates have the same root cause: modernization and cultural shifts changing the lives of women and children around the world.

It turns out fertility rates a common synonym for birth rates , rather like people, are quite sensitive to the ups and downs of life in the anthropocene. Educating women creates a series of compounding effects: women who begin school are likely to want to continue their education, tend to be more aware of contraception and how to use it, and are more likely to understand and seek out medical care for their children.

Breaking down barriers to education tends to lead to changes in norms, too; education empowers women, and empowered women are more able to make choices for themselves rather than conforming to traditional gender norms.

As women enter the workforce, Hartnett says, the question of children becomes a question of opportunity cost. One or two or zero! One of the most important technological factors in the reduction of global fertility, writes Roser, is the availability of birth control. Condoms, thankfully, are no longer made of animal intestines , and contraceptive options like IUDs and hormonal pills give women unprecedented control over their bodies.